The history of human civilization is often defined by its use of resources. From the Bronze Age to the Iron Age, and the Oil Age to the Atomic Age, our development as a species is synchronized with the resources we exploit and become dependent on.
And though with each new age, humanity sought to exploit more and more sophisticated resources, the 21st century poses the risk of completely reversing this trend. In this century, as climate change becomes increasingly inescapable, our lives and politics will depend much more critically on access to water.
There are several perspectives to consider when contemplating the future of water. First and foremost, water is a substance necessary for all life. In this sense, it is more precious to preserve and have access to than oil, gold or any other material — shortage of the listed examples may pose a strategic risk, while shortage of water is always a catastrophe. In the developed world, modern technology, sophisticated waterworks and supply chains mean that we do not have to worry about water at all. But given the effects of climate change that are yet to come, we must not take this privilege for granted.
When discussing the dangers posed by the warming of the planet, water is not an immediate concern in today’s sensationalist discourse. More severe, immediate risks of extreme weather, in the form of floods and storms, catch attention over the long-term, systemic issues of supplying water to the world of the future. However, in the next couple of decades, we will have to think more critically about water because the means by which we source it are at risk of declining or vanishing.
Primary sources of drinking water are underground aquifers and bodies of fresh water on the surface, such as rivers, lakes and springs. While the melting of glaciers and the burning of rainforests have been the most common ways of visualizing climate change, the pollution and shrinking of water sources have really only been brought into mainstream public consciousness in the past few years, due to controversy surrounding AI data centers.
Though data centers and their water consumption brought attention to the matter, the risk of shrinking water sources extends far beyond AI — sustaining the agricultural industry and the large urban areas that depend on intact supply chains will be a crucial concern to manage, more so than the oil crises of the last century.
The next steps necessary for safeguarding water require collective effort between governments — both internally between states, counties and cities, as well as internationally between national governments and larger blocs. Given that agriculture is the primary concern, such efforts must be targeted at the regions of the world most at risk of desertification or drought today. Examples include the Aral Sea basin, the Sahel region, and the Amazon basin. While specifics vary by region, common contributing issues include uncontrolled resource extraction and wasteful agricultural practices.
The expansion of deserts and the shrinking of water sources happen over the long term, but are serious issues not only ecologically but also geopolitically. As with any commodity, climate change is making water more exclusive, which will, at any rate, make it a resource worth going to war over.
The most notable current example of this is the ongoing dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia over water rights across the Nile. Ethiopia’s effort to dam the source of the Nile has become the root of a dispute that could potentially spark a war over water, especially if the United States loses its role as a mediator in relations between the two countries.
Beyond this issue, it is natural to be concerned about other hypothetical scenarios in the next few decades in which the Nile dispute could also affect other major river and lake basins, sparking further tensions that risk wars over water.
International commissions, especially the initiatives led by the UN, have been crucial for water sustainability, but this is not enough for the needs of this century. Coordinated construction projects to build forested shields against desertification and improved irrigation systems to reduce water waste are necessary measures, especially in areas like the Aral Sea basin or the Sahel.
Furthermore, to avoid overdependence on foreign aid, target countries will need to provide education and training in land and resource management. The important aspect of foreign aid to improve water access will be self-sustainability for recipient countries, unless such programs leave them dependent on foreign capital and at the mercy of political and financial manipulation by more powerful economies.
Though the potential of wars fought over water is relatively distant, that is no excuse to tolerate the long-term humanitarian risks. Discourse on climate change must place greater emphasis on geopolitical risks, including the possibility that nations vulnerable to water crises may be pushed toward aggression to secure resources for themselves.
Concentrated and collaborative investments into water systems are deeply costly, but also a necessary step toward avoiding future catastrophes over droughts, famines and resource wars.
Deniz Gulay is a junior double-majoring in history and Russian.
Views expressed in the opinions pages represent the opinions of the columnists. The only piece that represents the view of the Pipe Dream Editorial Board is the staff editorial.