The future of the GOP is uncertain as the Trump era nears its end.
Because of this, much discussion has surrounded two Republican figures as possible successors — Vice President JD Vance and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio. While Rubio’s support has increased recently, Vance still leads among Republican primary voters. Regardless, both candidates are influential in the Trump administration, but this may not work in their favor.
The Democratic Party faced a similar situation in the 2024 presidential election. Kamala Harris was chosen as the Democratic candidate for president after serving as vice president in the Biden administration — but that very association may have led to her loss. Biden’s approval rating sat consistently in the low 40s throughout his term in office, with around two-thirds of voters saying they believed the United States was heading down the wrong track. This association was hard to break for Harris, making it difficult to convey a message of change amid economic anxiety during an administration she was deeply part of.
Rubio and Vance may face similar issues among Republicans, especially with Trump’s approval rating in the mid-30s. It will be hard to campaign on popular sentiments such as not getting the United States into foreign entanglements when the administration they are a part of has waged the most unpopular war in recent U.S. history, when Trump claimed in his campaign that there would be “No New Wars.”
Vance and Rubio may also face the same political liability Harris did when trying to convince Americans they are the change the U.S. economy needs. Both Vance and Rubio are a part of the administration that has continued the economic pessimism seen under the Biden administration. Americans consistently describe the economy as the most important issue, so their association with a deeply unpopular administration economically will not benefit them.
Those who may find great success and enthusiasm behind them might be the more libertarian-minded Republicans who aren’t as linked to Trump, notably U.S. Sen. Rand Paul and Rep. Thomas Massie.
Paul isn’t new to presidential bids. He ran as a Republican in the 2016 presidential election, espousing similar ideas to his father, Ron Paul, who ran for president three times in the past. While he found limited success in his first run, things may be different this time. Paul recently said he is “fifty-fifty” on the idea of running and if he runs, Paul can use his distance from the White House to his advantage.
Not only is Paul not part of the Trump administration, but he is one of the few Republicans willing to break from the president. He has broken with Trump over deploying the military to carry out mass deportations, calling it a “huge mistake.” Around 29 percent of non-MAGA Trump voters called the campaign too aggressive and around 43 percent disapproved of how it has been implemented. Paul has also broken with the president on the unpopular war in Iran and was the sole Republican who voted to limit Trump’s war powers. In terms of the economy, Paul has criticized Trump’s aggressive tariff policy, which Americans also largely disapprove of.
Paul shows an ability to stand firm on his principles and not cave to Trump’s pressure, proving that he can win over disillusioned Republicans.
Paul does not carry the stain that Rubio and Vance do and has demonstrably shown his opposition to the administration’s unpopular actions. This will be a powerful tool for him if he chooses to run, as he can present himself in a positive light compared to Vance and Rubio. Paul can channel the energy of Republican voters who have grown disillusioned by Trump’s aggressive policies, both domestically and abroad. His appeals to improve the economy will be considered with greater trust because he is not part of the current administration.
Massie brings similar energy and ideas to the table as Paul. While his name is not circulated as much as Paul’s for a potential presidential bid, nor has he ever run for president, Massie may have what it takes to put up a decent challenge. This is especially because Massie has broken with the president many times, leading to numerous feuds between them.
During the 2020 pandemic, Massie forced a vote in Congress, prompting Trump to call for his removal from the GOP. More recently, the two feuded in 2025 when Massie refused to support the president’s spending bill. As retaliation, Trump endorsed Massie’s opponent for reelection, who raked in 1.2 million dollars in the final quarter of 2025. It is in this struggle that reveals one of Massie’s greatest strengths for a presidential run — his resiliency. Massie is unafraid to break from the president and speak out against him, even when it risks his chances of reelection.
While the focus of the 2028 GOP primary seems to be on administration members Vance and Rubio, it is important to consider those on the outside. After all, it was Donald Trump who came into the 2016 election as an outsider. While Paul and Massie are not outsiders in that sense, since they both have political experience, they are outsiders when it comes to ideas within the GOP. But their fresh ideas may gain traction with the voting base among a divided Republican Party.
The Trump administration has not delivered on its promises, leaving Vance and Rubio with the task of explaining themselves. This is not the case with Paul and Massie, who instead provide ideas different from those of the current administration, which may attract Republican voters.
Both Republicans and Democrats sit at a crossroads. They can continue on the path of the status quo, picking another candidate who claims to be a force of change but fails to live up to that vision or they can take the more unclear path, picking a candidate who comes from outside the mainstream party’s ideas but may better live up to their promises.
The last few election cycles have been marked by disappointing leaders and status quo ideas. The Republican primary could be an opportunity for the country to go in a new direction. Paul and Massie are certainly big figures in the Republican Party, but only time will tell if they have enough to go against the strength that comes with Trump’s approval.
Kayla Cloherty is a freshman majoring in history.
Views expressed in the opinions pages represent the opinions of the columnists. The only piece that represents the view of the Pipe Dream Editorial Board is the staff editorial.