The study of history frequently finds itself intertwined with other subjects. It is encouraged, if not necessary, to look at human development not only from the perspective of culture or politics but also from the perspective of economics, geography, biology, engineering, medicine and more. However, a perspective that can potentially change the way we think about humanity comes from the theories of a Soviet astrophysicist, Nikolai Kardashev. By reimagining his vision for humanity, we can better understand and predict the future of humankind beyond Earth.
Kardashev created the titular “Kardashev scale” as a method of measuring the levels of progress a civilization can theoretically reach. When Earth inevitably becomes insufficient in resources, humanity must seek to develop new planets and new systems to fulfill its needs. He proposed that to satisfy its energy needs, an expanding and spacefaring civilization will seek to harness the total output of its home planet, then its entire solar system and finally an entire galaxy. This means that hypothetically, the predictable trend for us is to seek to colonize and develop the space around us for the continuation of human civilization.
Kardashev was correct in assuming that energy consumption is a solid metric to measure the rate of human progress. However, the cosmic scales of stars and galaxies are still too far away from us; even traveling at light speeds will take us centuries, if not millennia, to achieve the steps required on this scale. Furthermore, Kardashev’s vision for technological progress is not comprehensive enough to be accessible. Harnessing and utilizing energy on large scales is indeed important, but the progress of a civilization that leads to such achievements comes with being able to develop new technologies in transportation, navigation, communication and manufacturing collectively. Therefore, the theory must be adjusted to fit the needs of current and near-future civilizations.
The first step in rethinking Kardashev’s vision starts with technology. Using our history as an example, the mass colonization of entire continents came as a result of the need for resources to fuel the Industrial Revolution but also necessitated the advent of technologies that could sustain the scale of those empires. Larger ships, more accurate maps, the telegraph, the telephone and finally the advent of the production line — these were all innovations that history simply could not progress without. Imagining the scales, speeds and techniques of production and infrastructure is therefore key to the theorization of harnessing energy. If we want to expand the scope of human civilization beyond Earth, we must also have the imagination and planning to conceptualize this expansion in terms of transportation and communication tools.
There is also another arguably less “scientific” but nonetheless deeply important point to consider. Kardashev may have contemplated the expansion of human energy use on planetary and even galactic scales, but he completely overlooked the element of culture and group identity. The history of humanity can be considered a steady progress of coalescing around larger and larger entities — from the earliest tribes to city-states, kingdoms, empires and eventually today’s superpowers and economic blocs, human history took a direction toward greater civilizational centralization that remained consistent throughout the ages.
At this current moment, we are at the stage in which concentrated nation-states are forming blocs on regional and continental levels to combine their collective economies. The implementation of common currencies, common markets and common production for military equipment are steps toward unifying national societies toward entities on the scale of continents. While thinking about the expansion of human civilization on cosmic scales, along with scientific progress, we must imagine how a unified society can transcend vast geographies and function on even larger scales.
The culture factor is key to reimagining the Kardashev scale into something more pragmatic as it puts modern geopolitics into the context of greater civilizations. We need new social theories that can explain the direction of civilization by explaining how states develop, expand and connect. Focusing squarely on GDP or similar economic metrics as a sign of moving up the scale ignores the realities of modern politics; powers such as China and Russia present real material challenges to Western political doctrine despite being far less formidable on paper.
Meanwhile, the European Union contains many national economies that collectively can rival even the largest superpowers, but its future is at risk of fragmentation due to an inability to solidify a continental identity of culture. Therefore, new understandings of human development and progress must encompass factors like the efficiency of material production, the centralization of state apparatus and the exertion of cultural influence across national boundaries.
I hope that it is in our destiny as humans to become a spacefaring civilization, but to do so, social science must step up to the task of hypothesizing the transition from nation-states to great powers and to cosmic entities as Kardashev proposed. Those who study history must look into fusing the processes of technological progress, coalescing of cultures and synchronization of national economies toward larger blocs, trends that will define the future of our collective civilization.
Deniz Gulay is a sophomore double-majoring in history and Russian.
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