Binghamton University’s Prediction and Financial Markets Association hosted the first round of its inaugural event, the Kalshi Market Pricing Case Competition on Nov. 14. Working alongside representatives from Kalshi, Justin Virasami, the organization’s president and a first-year graduate student studying business administration, and Jared Virasami, vice president and treasurer and a sophomore majoring in business administration, created and judged the first round of the event.

Kalshi is a Commodity Futures Trading Commission-regulated exchange platform where users can purchase contracts in specific markets regarding the outcome of future events. Users can purchase a contract expecting a certain outcome at a price ranging from 1 cent to 99 cents, which will either return $1 if the outcome occurs as predicted or no return if it does not. On Kalshi, users can trade on a variety of markets with other users, ranging from future U.S. employment growth to the 2026 AFC Championship winner.

“We know that eventually it’s going to make its way to college students, so we want to help build a healthy relationship with prediction markets before they get a negative perception about a financial tool or instrument that they possibly could use to help them in their everyday life,” Justin Virasami said.

The organization’s competition seeks to help participants build skills in market pricing analysis, while also teaching risk management techniques found in sports trading communities.

After founding the Sports Trading and Predictive Analytics Club in January of this year, Justin Virasami created the Prediction and Financial Markets Association after noticing the explosive growth of predictive market advertising, and he hopes to enable students at Binghamton to create healthier relationships with predictive markets.

“We talk more about the overall education about prediction markets, but for risk management, it’s super important because it’s for 18-plus people,” Virasami said. “So that even if we didn’t have this club and they found [Kalshi], we want to connect our two clubs, even though they are separate, to teach about bankroll management strategies.”

The competition asked groups of three to four students to create a presentation, where each group selected a specific future outcome within a prediction market on Kalshi. Within their presentations, participants presented an analysis of the real-world circumstances affecting their chosen market and a rationale for or against selecting a given outcome. Using this background, each group created a recommendation for which contract within the market should be selected.

Participants in the case opted for a wide variety of markets, including “College Football Championship winner?” and “Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks this year?”

Members of the “College Football Championship winner?” group presented research regarding indicators that may influence NCAA Football Championship outcomes, like what percent of pre-playoff AP No. 1 seeds win the National Championship, the positional strengths of select teams and whether select teams were likely to qualify for the College Football Playoff, before recommending a purchase for the Ohio State contract.

Meanwhile, the group that chose to analyze the “Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks this year?” analyzed a plethora of statements by Donald Trump regarding stimulus checks, alongside the likelihood of potential financing plans. Their presentation concluded with a chart of several potential hedging options a sample trader could utilize through Kalshi when deciding which contract to purchase in their market.

Robert Montusi, a sophomore majoring in business administration, saw the case as an opportunity to participate in a less restrictive competition.

“Something that really incentivized me to pursue this case competition was really how open it was, and being able to do your own research into specific markets,” Montusi said. “I found that with all the traditional case competitions, you’re really stuck with one company facing a specific set of problems.”

The final round of the Kalshi Market Pricing Case Competition was held on Saturday, Nov. 22 at 3 p.m.

Binghamton alumnus and Susquehanna International Group co-founder Jeff Yass ‘79 sees prediction markets as an essential instrument toward creating advantages in the decision-making process.

“Prediction markets are an essential tool for any decision you make,” Yass wrote. “Those that don’t utilize this tool are at a distinct disadvantage.”