In the 2024 election, Donald Trump won decisively, taking both the Electoral College and the popular vote and demonstrating strong momentum behind his ideas. Similar to his 2016 campaign, he often tapped into anti-establishment themes, pushing himself as a candidate against endless foreign wars and focusing on affairs at home.
Despite campaigning on “no new wars,” President Trump recently launched a war with Iran, which he has admitted could last weeks and a CENTCOM report suggests it could even go on for months.
Furthermore, Trump aide and U.S. Homeland Security Advisor Stephen Miller posted during the 2024 campaign that “KAMALA WILL SEND YOUR SONS TO WAR.” Yet, it is the callous actions of the Trump administration that have cost the lives of at least seven U.S. service members. More concerningly, Trump has privately shown a strong interest in putting troops on the ground in Iran.
These recent actions are in direct contradiction of what he campaigned for. Did he ever intend to carry out such a promise? Probably not.
When Trump campaigned on “America First” ideals, many people got behind him with genuine enthusiasm. Now with such a clear violation of his word, will the MAGA base finally turn on him?
Trump’s first term was certainly filled with moments to make his supporters question his supposed anti-establishment sentiments. In his first term, he ordered a successful drone strike on Iranian general Qasem Soleimani, which caused outrage and led many to fear a wider conflict with Iran. However, since no war came of it, MAGA was free from possible allegations that their president was pro-forever wars.
Now, six years later, amid an actual war, MAGA cannot simply ignore Trump acting in direct contradiction of a strong campaign promise. The president has changed his mind before, but this situation is different. This conflict was already deeply unpopular at its outset and Trump is the first president in modern polling history to launch a major military operation with the public against him.
But how will MAGA react? Will they simply accept it and adapt or will it lead to a serious rift? It is very early on in this situation, but I want to flesh out the likely possibilities we may encounter.
There are signs that Trump’s followers will remain loyal despite the clear change in principle. The Iranian strikes of last June were widely popular with the MAGA base, despite contradicting his antiwar “America First” ideology. While the current conflict is a step up from last year’s action, it highlights MAGA’s adaptability in shifting positions with the President.
Recent polls have found that most Republicans who identify themselves as MAGA support the current attacks in Iran and Trump has given justifications that may have changed the minds of his more weary-minded supporters. When announcing the war, Trump said it was a defensive response to decades-long Iranian aggression and a campaign to liberate Iran. These reasons were likely grounds for a change of opinion for many in the MAGA base.
Changing stances is not unfamiliar to those in the MAGA movement and Trump himself has changed his stance on everything from banning TikTok to the use of mail-in ballots. Thus, it has almost become expected for his supporters to change stances with him, something we may very well see as this war continues. Following the immediate aftermath of the attacks, Republicans have become more likely to approve of them, suggesting that many in the MAGA base have simply adapted their stance.
On the other hand, this war could also worsen preexisting cracks in the MAGA base.
For years, Tucker Carlson has been one of the leading voices beloved by MAGA supporters, but he has become an outspoken critic of Israel and the attack on Iran, which he called “absolutely disgusting and evil,” has incited conflict with other prominent voices in the MAGA movement. In his condemnation of the war, Carlson has echoed “America First,” anti-establishment ideas once so precious to the MAGA base, saying, “This is Israel’s war. This is not the United States’s war. This war’s not being waged on behalf of American national security objectives — to make the United States safer or richer.”
Even if Carlson is no longer an official part of the movement, his words still hold tremendous weight to MAGA and they represent the growing rift over support for Israel and regime change efforts. We may start to see more and more of those in the MAGA base looking to the words of Carlson rather than Trump. This divide within MAGA could be significant in the 2028 election when picking a Republican successor to Trump, possibly leading to a battle between a more anti-establishment candidate versus a more neoconservative war hawk.
MAGA is in its weakest, most fractured state ever due to the war with Iran, leaving its antiwar image forever tarnished. This will inevitably lead some leaders to change their stance in line with the president and to defend the war as necessary. I see this as the fate of most in the MAGA movement, as there simply isn’t another huge anti-establishment figure with the energy of Trump that MAGA can get behind.
But this is not the fate of all MAGA. We have seen many major figures in the MAGA movement, like Carlson and Marjorie Taylor Greene, move away from the president, so who’s to say many ordinary people may not do the same?
This leaves us with interesting questions going into the 2028 election and a serious power vacuum open for someone to take on the once-strong anti-establishment energy of Trump. It could be someone like Rep. Thomas Massie, who has been increasingly in the spotlight for breaking from the president in his commitment to “America First” principles. Or perhaps it will be someone from outside of politics, like Trump once was.
The question is, do any of these people have the personality that can so strongly encapsulate people like Trump? And even if they do, the war with Iran has sown deeper distrust in the promises of politicians, even those who make themselves appear as anti-establishment.
The future of MAGA is at its most uncertain point and the results of this war will forever shape it.
Kayla Cloherty is a freshman majoring in history.
Views expressed in the opinions pages represent the opinions of the columnists. The only piece that represents the view of the Pipe Dream Editorial Board is the staff editorial.