North and South Korea are one of the curious vestiges of the Cold War. After 1945, Korea was split into North Korea and South Korea, and the division hardened after the inconclusive end of the Korean War. In the decades since, the two countries have embraced vastly different political systems and cultures, adopting distinct identities. Today, its divided state symbolizes both the old ideological struggle between the USSR and the United States, and the new, geopolitical struggle between the United States and China.
The Koreas are therefore one of the riskiest questions of this century — their political conditions thus far have heightened tensions almost to the point of nuclear war. However, there may still be a chance for the peaceful conclusion of an 81-year-old story.
By taking the initiative to develop new ties, North and South Korea may set an example for progress through diplomacy in this century. If the countries can establish the precedent for dialogue and economic cooperation, that precedent can also be used to decrease military buildup over Taiwan, Japan and East Asia as a whole.
The opportunity for diplomacy lies in the change of times, or at the very least, the anticipation of change. This year, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un declared that North Korea has abandoned its goals for peaceful reunification. Although initially ominous and concerning, this declaration also implies recognition of South Korea as a sovereign nation.
Mutual recognition marks a key departure from what was effectively “mutual brinkmanship,” a long history of threats and escalations that risked war on several heated occasions. The most egregious of such incidents was a border skirmish on the island of Yeonpyeong back in 2010 — the exchange of artillery fire and casualties on both sides raised questions around the world about the future of both countries’ relations.
North Korea’s rhetoric about “abandoning hope for peace” can seem dramatic, but it should not be taken as a permanent decision. Since South Korea still maintains avenues for diplomatic relations, this move may correctly be seen as a bargaining tactic for future negotiations.
Indeed, from this tenuous environment of hostility, the Koreas may theoretically move toward normalization, which is precisely the opportunity to seize over the peninsula. North Korea’s implied recognition of the South has also prompted a policy shift by South Korea. Since this July, South Korea has ended its “denuclearization first” doctrine, meaning that South Korea will no longer require North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons as a precondition for diplomatic talks.
These normalization measures are critical for geopolitics in East Asia, and, to a certain extent, the entire world. The Koreas, after all, still symbolize the ideological divide between the East and West. China and the United States are both invested in ensuring the independence of North and South Korea, respectively, as the strength of their respective partners is both a strategic benefit and an ideological message to the world.
This year’s developments between North and South Korea should be seen as the beginning of economic reconciliation, a precursor to full political and social reconciliation. Trade between the two countries remains low, especially because relations broke down two years ago, ending many cooperation agreements.
However, with de-escalation and mutual recognition now becoming a new basis for dialogue, further economic cooperation must be the main target for diplomacy. Political and cultural reconciliation will remain difficult for the foreseeable future, but increased cross-border trade, joint construction projects and limited agreements on cross-border travel can mark the beginning of an integration process.
Navigating such policies will undoubtedly be difficult, but the long-term benefits of normalization between the Koreas far outweigh the alternative: the risk of new skirmishes and conflicts. Furthermore, we must consider the Koreas as one of many key points in a wider struggle between China and the United States that spans the Asia-Pacific.
Beyond pragmatic arguments based on trade and commerce, there is also a humanitarian and social argument for prioritizing further dialogue. Vietnam, another socialist country in Asia, is an example to consider — its opening to global markets in recent decades has increased human development and economic growth. This has allowed Vietnam, previously a military foe of the United States, to improve relations with the West and become an important economic partner in Asia.
The steps toward economic normalization, as a starting point for future reconciliation, must now be taken over North and South Korea too. If Washington embraces the role of mediator and approaches the issue with care and respect, resolving a decades-long hard-border policy could become the greatest diplomatic triumph of this century.
Deniz Gulay is a senior double-majoring in history and Russian.
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