In 2019, ISIS’ last stronghold in Syria fell to Kurdish militants and, since then, the jihadist group has mostly remained out of the headlines. While it has maintained a small presence in Iraq and Syria, ISIS has been unable to recapture its former strength, where it once controlled large portions of the countries.

The Syrian civil war provided the catalyst for ISIS’s rise, as the country was gripped in fighting between a wide multitude of factions who opposed the nation’s dictatorship under Bashar al-Assad. The Syrian government fought not only Syrian rebels seeking to establish a democratic government, but also the Syrian Democratic Forces, a mostly Kurdish group that fought both the government and rebels alike.

As a result of Syria’s divisions, ISIS was able to quickly overtake much of this territory as opposing factions fought amongst themselves. The withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq also contributed to this rise, as there was no large Western troop presence in nearby Iraq.

Now, ISIS is on the rise again in a surprising region of the world — West Africa.

A combination of civil wars, authoritarian regimes and withdrawals of Western troops has made West Africa ripe for the terror group to make its next push to establish a global caliphate, an empire where ISIS would rule under its extreme interpretation of Sharia law.

The first element to understand why ISIS has grown so strong in West Africa lies in the region’s economic conditions. The COVID-19 pandemic had a serious, detrimental effect on West African economies, with the associated economic downturn sending millions of people already suffering from extreme poverty into an even deeper spiral. For example, according to a study published by the Economic Community of West African States, there are 25 West Africans unable to meet their basic food needs, a 35 percent increase since 2020.

The rise of extreme poverty in West Africa makes financial incentives offered to become an ISIS fighter tempting to many who otherwise may have never joined the group, as joining ISIS allows individuals to provide for themself and their families who may otherwise go hungry. The influx of fighters has allowed ISIS to begin exhibiting state-like influence in remote regions of Western Africa, allowing it to take advantage of these people even further as the terror group takes over the government’s functions.

For instance, in territories where it wields influence, ISIS collects taxes from the citizens and exercises conscription to further boost its ranks. In some cases, these two “governmental” functions work alongside each other: ISIS will set an exceptionally high tax on a village, and offer exemptions if men in the village agree to fight for the armed group. Once again, these men have no choice but to join the group to keep their communities from being driven even deeper into poverty.

Despite their efforts to win over desperate young men and the utilization of conscription, ISIS finds it difficult to match the manpower of a national military force and is still a relatively small armed group, with an estimated four to seven thousand fighters in West Africa as of April. A major part of ISIS’s effort to gain territory in the past has been to operate in countries where military and police forces are distracted by ongoing conflict.

Like its rise in Iraq and Syria, ISIS seeks to take advantage of the pervasive internal conflict and rise of authoritarian regimes in West Africa. West African states such as Burkina Faso and Mali have long been gripped by war, which has divided the countries between the government and several armed group.

The impact of these conflicts has been exacerbated by internal clashes within the countries’ governments. Both Burkina Faso and Mali have recently seen coup d’états, with their previous democratic governments being replaced by military regimes, driven primarily by anti-French sentiment. As a result, both nations turned toward Russia to seek help in combating jihadists and ethnic rebels in their territories.

Previously, France had kept troops in these two countries on missions to combat the various anti-government groups waging their respective insurgencies, including ISIS. As a result of the new government’s pivot to Russia, the sizable contingents of French soldiers in both countries were withdrawn.

To fill the gap, Mali and Burkina Faso have enlisted the help of the Wagner Group, a Russian private military contractor. Russian mercenaries in the countries have been implicated in a series of horrific war crimes, adding further fuel to the fire and possibly strengthening antigovernment sentiment in affected areas, which could boost ISIS’s recruitment efforts.

Wagner has also had less success than French troops in combating anti-government forces, facing several notable defeats. In 2024, Russian mercenaries were ambushed in Mali and suffered heavy casualties to ethnic Tuareg insurgents — 23 mercenaries were left missing, and several were captured by the rebels. These losses highlight the vulnerabilities of West Africa’s newest foreign troop presence to insurgent hit-and-run tactics, something ISIS is sure to take advantage of as it continues to gain strength.f

Despite the presence of Russian mercenaries, these governments remain relatively weak and unable to effectively counter insurgencies within their territories, leaving their nations divided and vulnerable if ISIS goes on the offensive.

The conditions in West Africa today share a disturbing similarity to those in Iraq and Syria prior to the rise of the Islamic State. Weak and authoritarian governments, internal conflict and poor economic conditions all contribute to the terror group’s new strength eight years after its defeat.

If the international community continues to ignore the rise of the group in West Africa, they may soon face down an emboldened ISIS and another long, expensive and deadly war against the group.

James Heins is a junior majoring in political science. 

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