As we have witnessed in the past few years, the world is getting increasingly chaotic, violent and tumultuous. Seemingly all at once, both old and new rivalries around the globe are one by one reaching their breaking point and turning into bloodbaths. The war in Ukraine is reaching its second year with no immediate end in sight, while the Caucasus is riddled with territorial disputes and the danger of new ethnic violence between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
And while the ongoing battles in Palestine are at risk of escalating to a major war between the Middle Eastern nations, in the Balkans, the situation is becoming increasingly tenuous as the legacy of the Yugoslav Wars and the hostilities between Kosovo and Serbia are still present in the region. The erosion of French influence over sub-Saharan Africa is raising questions about European influence abroad, and most notably, the decades-long standoff between China and Taiwan can quite possibly reach a “point of no return” in the near future as the threat of a war between these two sides so bitterly opposed to each other looms over international politics.
The common aspect that is shared between all these threats, disputes and conflicts is that the United States, in one way or another, has a strategic interest in taking a side in these situations as a part of its foreign policy. Over the course of the past hundred years, the United States invested a significant amount of its resources to support strategic allies, manipulate global events and maintain its political influence and dominance over its rivals throughout the planet. We can endlessly debate the role the United States played as an international actor over the course of its long history of interventions, but one thing that is certain is that those interventions were more often than not motivated by cold strategy, not idealistic goals or values.
Today, however, America is at a crossroads when it comes to the future of its foreign policy strategies. Economic struggles at home, especially with the threats of a new recession and nationwide economic downturn since the past few years, are beginning to limit diplomatic and political capabilities abroad. Most importantly, the foreign aid and military assistance the United States is providing around the world to its strategic partners comes at the cost of resources taken away from vital public matters that need immediate resolution, such as welfare, infrastructure, education and crime. For both the allies and the enemies of this nation, the writing is clearly on the wall — either America will exhaust itself while trying to maintain the vast strategic network it operates, thus endangering its own very existence or it will have to make sacrifices to maintain its own power and strength at the expense of its diplomatic interests.
This is a serious point of contention as we are entering a new period of history where old rivalries are being fought over with modern methods in a new age of conflict between nations. With many hostilities emerging and many more having the risk of devolving into bloody wars, countries around the world are looking for ways to protect themselves, not in the interest of their allies but purely for their own national interests.
A notable example is the evolution of the values shared by members of the European Union. Ever since the Trump administration, there have been calls made by European politicians and thinkers to create new defense mechanisms and stratagems independent of American involvement. Though with the current geopolitical situation in Europe, such concepts are not likely to become mainstream, countries that are experiencing seismic policy changes, as seen through recent developments such as Slovakia, Poland and Hungary, are proof that the United States is no longer seen as the reliable and almighty superpower it was seen as before.
Beyond these developments, nations which did not share the ideological values of America yet had strategic reasons to form partnerships are also looking for new ways to protect themselves from the chaos that is echoing across the world today. Countries such as Turkey, South Korea, Philippines and Saudi Arabia are spending their resources on national defense and new strategic partnerships to maintain their national interest without the need of an overarching American umbrella.
Quite visibly, nationalistic and patriotic talking points are gaining precedence over the grand ideas of a united “Western Bloc,” a Cold War mentality that is eroding away as the United States is at the risk of losing the upper hand at managing and influencing the international political sphere. Just as American dominance over political matters are receding, through new partnerships in defense, trade and diplomacy, the socio-cultural influence this nation imposed over many decades is being replaced by homegrown patriotic ideals. Based on how things are developing, in the near future, what Washington says may no longer be what the world (and most importantly the “international community” that is dependent on the United States) will follow when it comes to conflicts and diplomacy.
One of the talking points that people did not appear to pay attention to during Trump’s campaign was his goal to unlink America from the entanglements that plagued its domestic issues and the spending of its resources. With the looming threat of a major recession and rising issues with inflation, U.S. foreign policy may very well implode due to the mounting pressures both from within and outside. The upcoming presidential elections are therefore key for us to determine the future of this nation diplomatically and geopolitically.
Deniz Gulay is a freshman majoring in history.