The last year in Canada’s history will surely find its place in history books. In the April 2025 election, Canada demonstrated how closely its politics and economics are tied to the developments in the United States. The Conservative Party, thought to have effectively secured a victory this year, lost its advantage due to its association with President Donald Trump and his return to the White House.
President Trump’s second term has notably impacted Canada’s perspective on the United States, largely due to Trump’s remarks about annexing Canada to make it the 51st state. Against this rhetoric, the Liberal Party, now led by Mark Carney, defied the odds and won the 2025 federal election, significantly expanding its vote share in the process.
However, this phenomenon is not something Prime Minister Carney can take for granted. Canada’s politics are heading toward polarization, and the Conservatives may yet undo his current work.
The current circumstances of Canada’s politics stem from its depth and diversity compared to the United States, particularly because Canada owes its political heritage to the Westminster model of the United Kingdom, giving rise to a larger spectrum of political parties. The Conservatives and Liberals in Canada can be broadly compared to the Republicans and Democrats, respectively. Meanwhile, Canadian politics is also home to social democrats under the New Democratic Party, environmentalists under the Green Party and regionalists under the Bloc Québécois, a party representing the French-speaking people of Quebec.
In April, the Liberal Party emerged victorious from this diverse political landscape, which is even more admirable considering its prior unpopularity under the outgoing prime minister, Justin Trudeau. Carney gathered the support of nearly 44 percent of the voters, a share not seen in around 40 years.
Canada also experienced a paradigm shift in the 2025 elections, as its politics became more tightly divided between the Liberals and Conservatives, polarizing the political discourse. The aforementioned social democrats, greens and regionalists had their vote share greatly diminish. Meanwhile, the Conservatives, although they lost the election, also greatly expanded their base and now share the Canadian electorate nearly equally with the Liberals.
Currently, much of Canada’s politics revolves around three important questions: immigration, housing and relations with the United States. The first two issues are Canada’s domestic concerns, which requires legislation addressing unemployment and affordable living. On both issues, the Liberals have policies in place and a plan for the next four years in mind, specifically focused on the rapid construction of housing nationwide, reinforcing borders with additional troops and reform of border security services. Unless a cabinet crisis or a sudden economic downturn occurs, these issues are unlikely to cause a major change under steady leadership.
Because of this, Carney needs to focus on the third point more than the rest, as United States-Canada relations are quite literally what his career was born out of. The 2025 elections reinforced the notion that Canada, as a nation economically and population-wise much smaller than the United States, is in the orbit of Washington, D.C. and will be influenced by the developments happening within the United States. Carney’s victory, or the success of any Liberal politician, would be impossible without the negative reaction to both Donald Trump’s victory and its implications for the Conservatives.
Carney, having won an election through convenient circumstances — like the influence of Trump’s victory and the short time span leading up to the snap election in late April — now must lead a coalition of voters that may lose faith in him later during his tenure. The persisting disillusionment with the Liberal Party among the youth may set a generational trend serious enough to transcend policy issues and leave the party with an image that is blind to Canada’s issues.
Thus, Carney represents more than being the leader of the Liberals. He is the head of a political “big tent” against right-wing politics, seen as Trump’s looming shadow over Canada. Regardless of what Canada’s politics will look like by 2029, his main responsibility is to deliver on his promises for both maintaining stable relations with the United States and addressing issues related to housing and immigration. Carney now needs to consolidate his power, ensure Canada’s sovereignty and mitigate the negative views toward the immigration policy to secure a sustainable career.
In the next four years, the Conservatives may yet find a way to escape the negative branding and pose a challenge to the Liberals. This is all the more likely because, while Canada’s elderly population supports the Liberals, the youth are leaning more toward the Conservatives on a broad range of issues. The overwhelming evidence for this trend is a general disillusionment with Trudeau’s leadership and Canada’s overall political institutions, stemming from unaddressed economic concerns.
Carney’s actions may set a precedent for Western big-tent politics by fostering an inclusive political ideology in the coming years. Canada’s position as both a neighbor and an ally to the United States makes Canadian politics a valuable case study. The U.S. influence in this context will shape the dynamic between Washington, D.C. and its other allies overseas, which in turn will define the United States’ geopolitical position on the world stage.
Deniz Gulay is a junior double-majoring in history and Russian.
Views expressed in the opinions pages represent the opinions of the columnists. The only piece that represents the view of the Pipe Dream Editorial Board is the staff editorial.