Last year Andrew Sullivan argued in The Atlantic that the biggest reason for Barack Obama’s success is that, as a transformational figure, he represents the end of baby boomer leadership. The argument followed that Obama had a post-boomer appeal because of his non-divisive personality and rhetoric. However, Andrew Sullivan noted, that Obama’s policy was clearly center-left and not very different from the other mainstream Democrats.
Obama’s candidacy represents the new center of American politics. The Millennials, the generation of people born between 1977 and 1995, are the new emerging majority in America. While they identify as Democrats in a much higher number than Republicans, it is interesting to note that a significant portion identify as moderates. However they are not moderates of the current political paradigm; they are moderates of the future political paradigm in which the center would likely be represented by policies very similar to what Obama favors.
The Millennials are more accepting of alternative lifestyles. A 2007 Pew poll found that 56 percent of Millennials support gay marriage compared with only 37 percent of the rest of adults. It also found that 58 percent of Millennials believe that gays and lesbians should be able to adopt children. Gay marriage remains a very divisive issue, but even very conservative young people have come around to supporting civil unions with rights commensurate to that of a marriage.
The Millennials see the preservation of the environment as a major issue. Unlike some prominent politicians (read: Sarah Palin) there is an overwhelming belief among Millennials that global warming is in fact man-made and that serious action needs to be taken to deal with it, even at the expense of economic growth. They also disagree with the way foreign policy has been conducted over the last eight years and overwhelmingly reject hawkish unilateralism in favor of diplomacy and multilateralism.
So why is there such a striking difference between Generation X and the Millennials? In 1991 a Pew poll showed Gen Xers favoring the Republicans to Democrats 55 to 33 percent. This is probably largely due to the wild popularity of Ronald Reagan, but would it then be fair to say that the 2007 Pew poll showing the Millennials favoring Democrats to Republicans 55 to 33 percent is largely due to the widespread unpopularity of Bush? The unpopularity of Bush is certainly a major reason for the party identification, but I am skeptical that it is something that will slowly fade in the decade following the Bush administration. I think there are deep-rooted liberal views in the demographic as a whole. The Millennials grew up in diverse environments filled with people of diverse racial, ethnic, sexual orientations and backgrounds. The Millennials grew up during the Internet revolution. The Internet has increased awareness and acceptance of diverse lifestyles and helped to retire old, tired stereotypes. It has made once obscure information readily available with a few clicks.
It is sad to think that the election is still somewhat close after the Bush years, but I am paying attention to the voting patterns of the 18- to 30-years-old demographic as a source of hope for the future.