The weather in Binghamton may be miserable, but in Florida and Arizona baseball is in the air. Opening Day is just a couple weeks away, and few professional divisions have obvious winners at this point. So, after an offseason that saw superstars switching teams and young pitchers locked into long-term deals, here are the teams that are most likely to still be playing this October.
AL East
Projected Winner: New York Yankees
Projected Runner-up: Boston Red Sox
All personal biases aside, the Yankees are the favorites in what is always a competitive division. The quality of the Red Sox rotation is hard to believe, with a staff composed of Cy Young contenders Josh Beckett and Jon Lester, followed by former Angels ace John Lackey and Daisuke Matsuzaka. The Yankee rotation is comparable, though, especially with the addition of Javier Vazquez. The difference is in the lineups. The Yankees have quality from one through seven, with the likes of Jeter, Teixeira, A-Rod and Cano. Without Manny Ramirez, Jason Bay and a healthy David Ortiz, the Boston offense is nowhere near as fearsome, and that will be the defense. As always, both teams must watch out for the talent-heavy Rays and possibly the up-and-coming Orioles, though Baltimore may take a few more years to be a serious threat.
AL Central
Projected Winner: Minnesota Twins
Projected Runner-up: Detroit Tigers
Another repeat of last year’s standings, at least at the top. No team in this division inspires much fear in teams, but they each have their strengths. The Twins suffer from the loss of ultra-reliable closer Joe Nathan, but still boast a good rotation and could use Francisco Liriano in the closer role. Mauer, Morneau and Cuddyer return from a solid offensive squad, and will be joined by Orlando Hudson. The Tigers had an offseason of changes, giving up Edwin Jackson and Curtis Granderson. The team still has Cy Young candidate Justin Verlander and Rick Porcello, who had a stellar rookie year but may regress due to the workload, and feature the now-sober Miguel Cabrera and Johnny Damon offensively. Looking at the rest of the division, the White Sox are banking on rookie Gordon Beckham and multiple reclamation projects, the Indians are an in-between squad with potential and the Royals … well, at least they have Joakim Soria and Cy Young winner Zack Greinke.
AL West
Projected Winner: Seattle Mariners
Projected Runner-up: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
My head tells me the Angels win it again, but I can’t help but jump on the Seattle bandwagon. The Mariners are nothing like the team that lost 100 games just two years ago. Cliff Lee and Felix Hernandez are the best 1-2 punch in all of baseball, and the rest of the rotation behind them isn’t too shabby, either. I just wish they had done more for the offense than just add Chone Figgins, especially with the loss of power threat Russell Branyan. The Angels, meanwhile, have a rotation without any superstars but featuring solid pitchers throughout. The offense should be adequate, even with the loss of Figgins, between Bobby Abreu, Torii Hunter and Kendry Morales. The Texas Rangers won’t compete until they assemble a quality staff, and Oakland has to be wondering where Moneyball went wrong.
NL East
Projected Winner: Philadelphia Phillies
Projected Runner-up: Atlanta Braves
There’s no questioning the Phillies’ depth of talent, and their offense is easily one of the best in all of baseball. Adding Roy Halladay, who was absolutely dominant in the American League, should give them this year’s NL Cy Young winner, and Cole Hamels should bounce back. The real story, though, is who comes in second. This looks like a race between the Braves and the Florida Marlins, who always seem to compete. The Braves have a rotation that really doesn’t have any holes in it, prospect Jason Heyward has created as much buzz as any prospect has in years and the team will be looking to win it for manager Bobby Cox in the final year of an illustrious career. The Marlins have a couple of high-quality pitchers and will remain potent offensively, with Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla, but the team is still too undisciplined to go far. The Met rotation is in too much shambles to be a legitimate threat, and the Nationals, despite their very active offseason, still aren’t there yet in terms of talent to compete.
NL Central
Projected Winner: St. Louis Cardinals
Projected Runner-up: Milwaukee Brewers
As long as Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright don’t regress, the Cardinal rotation should be just good enough to win the division. Of course, it doesn’t hurt having the best player in baseball — Albert Pujols — and Matt Holliday leading your offense. The Brewers have an OK rotation and Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun will make sure the Brewers score runs. The Reds look like they have the potential to take the step forward to be the third-best team in the division, but are still not quite up to contending for the division yet. The Cubs are good, but could easily finish fourth in this division, while the Astros and Pirates look like cellar-dwellers once again, though Pittsburgh has a brighter outlook for the future.
NL West
Projected Winner: Colorado Rockies
Projected Runner-up: Los Angeles Dodgers
I want to pick San Francisco in this division, I really do. But the team basically made no new additions, the offense remains weak outside of Pablo Sandoval, and two-time defending Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum could suffer from throwing so many innings. Instead, I’m looking at the Rockies, who always seem to make a late-season surge. Colorado has a deep rotation and stars offensively, and the team’s youth should have enough experience now to be consistent forces. Los Angeles made no significant additions, but have a plethora of young, talented players who have only gotten better the last few years. The Diamondbacks are a sleeper in this division, especially after a surprising down year last season, and the Padres will need Adrian Gonzalez to avoid a record for losses in a season.