Most who know me would agree that I’m about as big of a campaign junkie as they come, so when I fell asleep watching last week’s debate, I knew something was up. Yes, after nearly two years of campaigning, and with three weeks until Election Day, it seems as though the candidates are easing up. Both are desperately trying to avoid the October gaff that could put the kibosh on a majority of electoral votes. That is a large reason why the candidates played it safe and the town hall debate was so dull.
Something doesn’t fit here, though — the latest poll from fivethirtyeight.com (a superb Web site that uses a complicated algorithm to compile various polls; 538 is the total number of electoral votes) projects Barack Obama winning 349 electoral votes. Obama leads in almost every swing state. As the campaigns enter the home stretch, the election is no longer about Barack Obama, who the pundits have insisted 2008 is all about. While he can by no means afford to become sloppy, if the election were held today, Obama would categorically crush John McCain. Historically, polls show us that the majority of undecided voters make up their mind between now and two weeks before Election Day. And so, in the midst of a severe economic crisis that no doubt plays favorably for Obama, it is not so much Obama’s election to lose, as McCain’s to win. He has a lot of work to do.
But polls mean nothing! McCain was up not five weeks ago! Three weeks is a lifetime in politics! Maybe, but the large fluctuations in the polls we’ve seen over the past two months or so were induced by large, dramatic political events: the two parties’ respective conventions, the announcement of Sarah Palin as McCain’s VP choice, the economic crisis.
What events are there to come that could have a significant impact on the polls? Whoever pundits believe is “winning” the debates, there is a pretty bi-partisan agreement (reinforced by the polls) that neither candidate has excelled (or conversely flopped) enough to significantly affect public opinion. Given Obama’s position in the polls, such a tie is to his advantage. Obama can maintain his status quo; McCain has to be exceptional.
The debates are clearly not going to do it for McCain, so barring an October surprise that would play to his advantage (i.e. something national security related), he has to engineer something on his own. Unfortunately, this is something he doesn’t seem to be too good at.
McCain tried first by “suspending” his campaign during the drafting of the bailout bill, and then again last week by saying he was going to focus on Barack Obama’s “associations.” But the public fell for neither his economically themed political stunt, nor his game of character assassination. He tried to appeal to the down-and-out — a “demographic” that Obama has dominated — during last week’s debate when he said he would support an additional government buyout, this time of individual mortgages. But the plan, which would cost an additional $300 billion and have dubious effects, was also a flop in terms of public opinion.
The truth of the matter is that McCain has been unable to put together a coherent strategy to win … from Sarah Palin to the “suspension” to the debates, he’s all tactics, and bad tactics at that. Save for an unlikely October surprise, Obama seems to have the election locked up.