Lock: New England (-3.0) over DENVER: I think the Pats proved themselves against the Ravens last week, and Brady is getting used to playing football again so I expect him to go off this week. The Broncos are a weak 4-0; they did beat Dallas, but I really think they have had some good breaks and they are due for their first loss.

Minnesota (-9.5) over ST. LOUIS: The Vikings have been one of the best teams this year, their defense has been solid, Favre is playing great and Adrian Peterson is his usual self. Even Vikings receivers have been top notch. The Rams are still looking for their first win, and I expect them to continue searching.

Washington (+3.5) over CAROLINA: Can I get an upset please? Redskins have had serious trouble scoring this season, but their defense has been decent. Meanwhile, the Panthers have yet to put together a win this season. I haven’t picked an upset in a while, this seems like a fun one to go for. Expect to see me glued to a screen with updating stats, because I know this won’t be playing on TV anywhere.

BALTIMORE (-8.5) over Cincinnati: The Ravens are going to put an end to the Bengals’ overconfidence this week. This matchup is for the sole possession of first in the AFC North and defense will carry Baltimore to No. 1.