It is a nearly impossible feat for the incumbent party to perform well during low-turnout special elections before midterms. But in a really bizarre twist, especially considering U.S. President Joe Biden’s low approval, it seems that the Democrats are doing just that. Just take a look at two recent elections in Alaska and New York. In Alaska, Democrat Mary Peltola just defeated Republican Sarah Palin by a margin of 51.5 percent to 48.5 percent. That is quite an impressive turnaround from 2020, when Donald Trump won the state of Alaska by a margin of 52.8 percent to 42.8 percent. In New York’s 19th Congressional District, which is right next door to us, Democrat Pat Ryan somehow managed to beat the odds and hold the district from Republican Marc Molinaro by a vote of 51.1 percent to 48.9 percent. This is similar to how the district voted in 2020, when Biden won it by a similar margin of a low single digit percentage. Both these elections show not only that Democrats aren’t being decimated by Republicans in places where they should be, but that they are actually increasing their totals in battleground districts. We all remember how the 2018 midterms went for Trump, and some remember how the 2010 midterms went for Obama — badly. This begs the question, what’s happening? I would definitely agree that the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision is playing a significant role in the uptick in Democratic performance, but it’s not the only factor. For me, the biggest dark horse factor is something rarely said about this country — our government is actually doing something good for the people.
What is the Biden administration doing that’s causing a surge in support for a party that realistically and historically should be dead in the water when it comes to the elections in November? Well, they seem to have decided that they’re going to make up for a lack of progressive policy passage over the past two years by pushing forward a heap of legislation and executive orders this summer and fall. Biden recently signed an executive order mandating the federal government to forgive up to $20,000 of student loans for millions of eligible Americans, an executive order to protect as much reproductive health care access as federally and legally possible in response to the Dobbs decision, the Inflation Reduction Act into law to lower health care costs and support workers, the CHIPS and Science Act into law to renew domestic manufacturing and the PACT act to provide an enormous boost in funding for veterans’ health care across the country. The economic news, which voters usually care about more than any other issue, is the cherry on top of all the policy news. The unemployment rate remains stable at 3.7 percent, just 0.2 percent higher than the historic low reached in July. Gas prices have been declining for 79 straight days going into Labor Day weekend, with no clear end to declining prices in sight. Lastly, while the inflation rate is still near historic highs, it is showing signs of weakness as the Federal Reserve increases tough monetary policy. This paragraph contains a list of wins that many administrations prior haven’t enjoyed during entire years of their terms.
There’s a moment in a Simpsons episode that I always go back to when thinking about why Democrats always get obliterated in the first midterm after winning the White House. There’s a comparison between these banners strewn across the stage of the Simpsons’ Democratic National Convention and the Simpsons’ Republican National Convention for the 1994 election year. At the Republican National Convention, it says, “We want what’s worst for everyone” and, “We’re just plain evil,” while at the Democratic National Convention, it says, “We hate life and ourselves” and, “We can’t govern!” To be honest, I really believe that this is a way to sum up the entire short-term cycle of our politics. It might be the case, however, that the Biden administration has actually realized that governing when put in government is important. If so, maybe the cycle is coming to an end.
It’s entirely possible that the Democrats get destroyed at the ballot box in November. Indeed, they may lose both their Senate and House majorities, effectively leaving Biden with no congressional power. Inflation and other costs of living could just be too much to overcome. In fact, young voters might just not turn out to vote in numbers high enough to see the Democrats through. Perhaps Republicans are way more energized than Democratic voters. Yes, it is not off the table that despite all the actual governing the Democrats have done recently, they lose the 2022 elections by a landslide. But this cycle would still be unlike many cycles before it. This time around, Democrats actually tried to help people without falling into bipartisan traps. And win or lose their majorities, they succeeded.
Sean Reichbach is a sophomore double-majoring in economics and philosophy, politics and law.