Conservatives are gloating over the prospect of soundly defeating a Nobel Laureate in the battle of poll-driven politics. They keep a tally of all his defeats, celebrating each check on their hit list. Soon, they insist, they will add health care and climate change legislation to that list, and by then they will have won. But they are wrong.

Fundamental political changes often remain indistinct until events unfold to reveal them. Politicians continue to talk, broadcasters stay focused on past issues and segments of the public cling to old views, as if nothing has happened. Until eventually, after months of bewilderment, the course of events reveals itself and is recognized.

That point may be coming soon. Recent developments throw into question the conventional wisdom that Barack Obama’s early presidency has been anything less than a remarkable political success, both at home and around the world.

An effective legislative majority in Congress is on the rise. Though still largely unrecognized, this majority will soon address the two key issues that President Obama called his top priorities during the presidential campaign: health care reform and climate change legislation. In so doing, it will alter the basis of American politics.

In August, as extremists made fools of themselves at town hall meetings and lawmakers vacationed, tens of millions of Americans without health insurance heard one message repeated incessantly: This health care plan is too ambitious to pass. Those who would continue the system of rationing care away from the sick and needy in favor of the well-to-do glorified in a premature victory lap.

But things have changed. With resilience in the face of radically hyperbolic rhetoric by the opposition, democrats in Congress forged ahead. Although the bill they are likely to pass will be weaker than many liberals prefer, it will set a powerful political precedent, and as popular support grows it can be improved and expanded.

Once health insurance is reformed, many will wonder why they ever opposed the moral, pragmatic and necessary changes made. They will see 30 million Americans, a population greater than that of many small countries, less sick and less likely to go bankrupt. They will see their neighbors benefiting from the most advanced medicine in the world and returning the dividends to their economy and nation. It will be a banner issue for the Democratic party and among the greatest legacies left by President Obama.

Similarly, it is widely believed that Congress cannot pass effective climate change legislation. The economic cost would be too great, the critics say, and democrats will not alienate the powerful coal industry by mandating its slow, steady demise.

But recent developments undermine this thesis. A consensus approach has been negotiated by the liberal Sen. John Kerry and the conservative Sen. Lindsey Graham. Their bill would reduce carbon emissions, increase renewable and nuclear energy capacity and impose a tariff on products from highly polluting countries, among other proposals. It will only take a few Republican votes to guarantee the bill’s passage — a prospect seeming ever more likely.

In December, world leaders will gather in Copenhagen to create a new framework for reducing global carbon emissions. With this legislation, President Obama would have the upper hand in negotiations. Those countries that refused to reduce emissions would be politically weakened by near-unanimous opposition among powerful Western industrialized nations. They would be economically weakened by new tariffs on emitters.

This scenario could create conditions for a strong treaty to mitigate and reverse the effects of climate change. Considering Al Gore won a Nobel Peace Prize for making a movie simply discussing the issue, if President Obama is able to leverage bipartisan Congressional support into an effective treaty to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions, it will be a stunning blow to critics around the world.