Center:
Boston University:
Jeff Pelage is an intriguing player with potential down the road. He had 10 points and 12 rebounds against Maine, but in a postseason situation he might not see big minutes.
UMBC:
Justin Fry is a solid center who can score and block shots. The Retrievers play well when he plays well, but he is returning from an injury and could be rusty.
Advantage: UMBC
Forwards:
Boston University:
Scott Brittain is an underrated player who can score big when given playing time. Freshman Jake O’Brien stretches defenses with his 3-point shooting and is an excellent foul shooter. Neither player is particularly tough when it comes to battling down low. Senior Matt Wolff is a solid defender who is inconsistent on offense.
UMBC:
Darryl Proctor, a candidate for Player of the Year, is as tough to guard as any player in the conference. He’s underrated defensively and could cause headaches for Boston underneath. Unfortunately for the Retrievers, he’s the only good option among their forwards.
Advantage: UMBC
Guards:
Boston University:
This is where Boston really outshines UMBC. Corey Lowe is a dangerous 3-point shooter who has transitioned well to the point guard spot with the loss of Tyler Morris. Marques Johnson, a Gilbert Arenas lookalike, sometimes plays the point and focuses on setting up the offense. John Holland, a 6-foot-5-inch shooting guard, is one of the AE’s top players and is a monster athletically. He can score in bunches with a variety of athletic moves, and he’s a thief on defense.
UMBC:
Jay Greene is the best pure point guard in the league, and he can hit threes enough to keep defenses honest. He makes the players around him better, but there aren’t enough weapons this year on UMBC for his passing skills to truly hurt good teams. Greene, standing at 5 feet 8 inches, can be a poor defender against larger guards. Matt Spadafora and Chauncey Gilliam round out the backcourt with an interesting mix of skills. Of the two, Gilliam, a strong off-guard, is more likely to put the team on his back when it needs it. Spadafora is a shooter, but he has struggled with his percentages this year.
Advantage: Boston University
Bench:
Boston University:
Neither team has much on the bench. Johnson can provide Boston with a lift, but he doesn’t look to create for himself. Valdas Sirutis and Sherrod Smith have ability, but neither average more than one point. These issues aren’t necessarily head coach Dennis Wolff’s fault; the injuries to Morris and Carlos Strong hurt the bench big time.
UMBC:
Rich Flemming averaged double figures in his first five games, but he has not been dangerous since returning from his injury. Head coach Randy Monroe goes to his bench less than almost any other coach in the country.
Advantage: Even
Coaching:
Boston University:
Dennis Wolff has been around the league for a long time, so he is familiar with tournament pressure. He has had a spotty history in the tournament when his teams were favored, but recent history suggests he’s an average tournament coach. In 2006, his No. 3 team was upset by No. 6 Vermont. In 2007, his No. 3 team defeated No. 6 Binghamton. In 2008, his No. 6 team upset No. 3 Albany. Wolff is no stranger to the 3/6 game, but his team isn’t exactly streaking into the tournament this time.
UMBC:
Randy Monroe’s Retrievers won three games in the tournament last year en route to the NCAAs as a 15 seed. It would take a miracle for UMBC to win more than one game this year, as it just doesn’t have the depth to survive two games in a row. Monroe loves to work the referees, which is helpful unless he gets a technical like he did last year in the semifinals. Ultimately, Monroe’s inability to recruit and develop a bench could be UMBC’s undoing this year.
Advantage: Boston
Overall:
Boston isn’t playing particularly good basketball right now, but neither is UMBC. College basketball is a guard-dominated game. If UMBC’s guards have a good game and take some of the pressure off Proctor, this could be a toss-up. Boston’s defense is better than UMBC’s, but the big reason that the Terriers have an advantage is that the excellence of Boston’s guards is hard to ignore. Boston will win going away if they play up to their potential, and they could win even if they play below their potential.
Advantage: Boston